How's the Economy?

Latest data to Oct 2026

How's the Australian economy?

Weak.

Most of the measures that matter to households look worse than usual.

See what's behind itHow it's changedHow we decide

The 6 things behind the verdict

How's inflation?

Bad
4.0%
Prices, year on year

Prices are rising 4.0% a year, well outside the Reserve Bank's target band, so your money buys noticeably less.

ABS · Aug 2026

How are jobs?

Mixed
4.7%
Unemployment rate

Unemployment is 4.7%, close to its 20-year average of 5.0%.

ABS · Sep 2026

Is pay keeping up?

Bad
-0.7%
Pay growth minus inflation

Prices are rising faster than pay (-0.7% a year), so most workers are going backwards.

ABS · Jun qtr 2026

How are rents?

Mixed
3.6%
Rents, year on year

Rents are rising 3.6% a year, faster than usual.

ABS · Aug 2026

How are interest rates?

Bad
4.60%
RBA cash rate

The cash rate is 4.60%, high enough to squeeze anyone with a mortgage.

RBA · Oct 2026

Is the economy growing?

Mixed
0.7%
GDP per person, year on year

Output per person grew 0.7% over the year. Growing, but only just once you count each person.

ABS · Jun qtr 2026

The verdict over time

The verdict has been Weak since Aug 2026. Since Aug 1990, it has been Strong 23% of the time, Mixed 63% and Weak 14%.

StrongMixedWeakEarly-90s recessionGSTGFCCOVID-19Rate rises1995200020052010201520202025
StrongMixedWeakEarly-90s recessionGSTGFCCOVID-19Rate rises200020102020
  • COVID-19, Mar 2020 to Feb 2021. The verdict stayed Mixed, even though jobs and growth were Bad. The rules score a near-zero cash rate and slow rent rises as Good, pay was Good for a while because prices were falling, and inflation was Bad for being too low rather than too high. The line came close to the Weak zone but never crossed it. Most people would call 2020 a hard year; we've left the rules as they are rather than change them after the fact.
Show what drove it: the 6 measures
  • Good
  • Mixed
  • Bad
  • No data yet
Inflation
Jobs
Pay after prices
Rents
Interest rates
Growth
See the verdict year by year
YearOverallInflationJobsPay after pricesRentsInterest ratesGrowth
Oct 2026WeakBadMixedBadMixedBadMixed
2025MixedMixedGoodBadMixedMixedMixed
2024MixedGoodGoodMixedBadBadBad
2023WeakBadGoodMixedBadBadBad
2022MixedBadGoodBadMixedMixedMixed
2021StrongMixedGoodBadGoodGoodGood
2020MixedBadBadMixedGoodGoodBad
2019MixedMixedMixedMixedGoodGoodMixed
2018StrongMixedGoodMixedGoodGoodMixed
2017StrongGoodMixedMixedGoodGoodMixed
2016MixedMixedMixedMixedGoodGoodMixed
2015MixedMixedMixedMixedGoodGoodMixed
2014MixedMixedMixedMixedGoodMixedMixed
2013MixedGoodMixedBadMixedMixedMixed
2012StrongGoodGoodGoodMixedMixedMixed
2011MixedMixedGoodMixedMixedBadGood
2010MixedGoodGoodGoodMixedBadMixed
2009MixedGoodGoodMixedBadMixedMixed
2008WeakMixedGoodMixedBadBadBad
2007MixedMixedGoodMixedBadBadGood
2006MixedMixedGoodGoodMixedBadGood
2005StrongGoodGoodGoodGoodBadGood
2004StrongGoodGoodGoodGoodBadGood
2003StrongGoodGoodGoodGoodBadGood
2002MixedMixedGoodMixedGoodBadGood
2001MixedMixedGoodMixedMixedBadGood
2000WeakBadGoodBadMixedBadMixed
1999StrongMixedGoodGoodGoodBadGood
1998StrongMixedGoodGoodGoodBadGood
1997MixedBad––MixedBadGood
1996MixedMixed––MixedBadGood
1995MixedBad––GoodBadMixed
1994StrongGood––GoodBadGood
1993StrongGood––GoodBadGood
1992MixedBad––GoodBadGood
1991MixedMixed––GoodBadBad
1990WeakBad––BadBadBad

Download the verdict for every month (CSV)

The longer stretches

Every run of Strong or Weak lasting 6 months or more, most recent first. The rest of the time the verdict was Mixed or changing month to month.

  • WeakAug 2026 to now · 3 months
  • WeakMar 2023 to Aug 2024 · 18 months · Rate rises
  • StrongDec 2017 to Oct 2018 · 11 months
  • StrongMay 2012 to Feb 2013 · 10 months
  • WeakMar 2008 to Jan 2009 · 11 months · GFC
  • StrongSep 2003 to Feb 2006 · 30 months
  • WeakDec 2000 to Aug 2001 · 9 months · GST
  • StrongJun 1999 to Feb 2000 · 9 months
  • StrongSep 1993 to Feb 1994 · 6 months
  • WeakAug 1990 to Nov 1991 · 16 months · Early-90s recession

Every month is judged by today's rules, using today's figures. Those include later revisions, so this shows how each month looks now, not what was known at the time. Some measures start later: jobs from Jan 1998 and pay after prices from Sep 1998. Until then the verdict uses the measures that exist. More on the method