Our method

How we reach a verdict

Every verdict comes from rules written down in advance and applied the same way every time. The verdict changes when the data changes, never with the mood. If we ever overrule the rules, the page says so and explains why.

Three words, two ways

Each measure gets one of three words for what it means for households:

GoodGood news for most households
MixedNeither clearly good nor bad, or good for some and bad for others
BadBad news for most households

The economy as a whole gets the matching word on its own scale:

StrongBetter than usual for most people
MixedSome good, some bad, depends who you are
WeakWorse than usual for most people

We use different words for single measures so they can't be misread. "Interest rates: Strong" could mean high rates; "Interest rates: Good" can only mean good for you.

Each verdict always comes with its word and a full, half or empty dot, so it never depends on colour alone.

Our principles

Measure what households feel. Prices, jobs, pay, housing costs, borrowing costs and growth per person.
Compare with something sensible. An official target where one exists, otherwise the measure's own long-run normal.
Publish the rules. Every threshold is listed below and on each page.
Show the source. Every chart names its publisher and the data is downloadable.
No sides. We judge the numbers, never the government of the day.

Verdicts over time

Each country page shows how the verdict has moved, month by month. We get it by replaying today's rules at every past month, using only the figures up to that month. There are no separate rules for history, so the latest month always matches today's verdict.

Today's figures, not the figures at the time. Official statistics get revised, sometimes years later, and each figure comes out weeks or months after the period it covers. The history shows how each month looks with everything we know now, which may differ from what the site would have said back then.
Today's thresholds, applied to every year. An interest rate that counts as Bad today counts as Bad in 2008 too, even if it was close to normal then. That keeps the judgement consistent, but it isn't how people felt at the time.
Fewer measures in earlier years. Not every measure goes back as far. A month gets an overall verdict once at least two thirds of the measures have one, and until a measure's data starts, the verdict averages the others.
Quarterly figures carry forward. Growth and pay are quarterly, so each quarter's verdict stands until the next one, just as it does in today's verdict.

Australia

The overall verdict averages the individual verdicts, scoring each measure's Good as 2, Mixed as 1 and Bad as 0. An average of 1.5 or more is Strong overall, below 0.75 is Weak, and anything in between is Mixed. Right now the average is 0.50.

Where the history may surprise you

COVID-19. The verdict stayed Mixed, even though jobs and growth were Bad. The rules score a near-zero cash rate and slow rent rises as Good, pay was Good for a while because prices were falling, and inflation was Bad for being too low rather than too high. The line came close to the Weak zone but never crossed it. Most people would call 2020 a hard year; we've left the rules as they are rather than change them after the fact.

Measure	What we test	Rules, checked in order	Source
Inflation	The latest figure (prices, year on year)	Good if from 2.0% to under 3.0% Mixed if from 1.0% to under 2.0% Mixed if from 3.0% to under 4.0% Bad if anything the rules above don’t cover	ABS, Consumer Price Index, Australia (monthly); RBA table G1 for history
Jobs	How far the latest figure sits above or below its 20-year average	Good if under -0.50 pts Mixed if from -0.50 pts to under +0.75 pts Bad if anything the rules above don’t cover	ABS, Labour Force, Australia (unemployment rate, persons, seasonally adjusted)
Pay after prices	The latest figure (pay growth minus inflation)	Good if 1.0% or more Mixed if from 0.0% to under 1.0% Bad if anything the rules above don’t cover	ABS, Wage Price Index minus Consumer Price Index, annual % change
Rents	The latest figure (rents, year on year)	Good if under 3.0% Mixed if from 3.0% to under 5.0% Bad if anything the rules above don’t cover	ABS, Consumer Price Index, Australia (rents, annual % change); history.csv for earlier years
Interest rates	The latest figure (RBA cash rate)	Good if under 2.50% Mixed if from 2.50% to under 4.00% Bad if anything the rules above don’t cover	RBA, Cash Rate Target (table F1, end of month; table F1.1 monthly average before 2011)
Growth	The latest figure (GDP per person, year on year)	Good if 1.5% or more Mixed if from 0.0% to under 1.5% Bad if anything the rules above don’t cover	ABS, Australian National Accounts (GDP per capita, chain volume, seasonally adjusted)

United States

Where the history may surprise you

GFC. The verdict was Weak at the worst of the crisis but back to Mixed from March 2009, while unemployment was still climbing toward its 10% peak that October. Prices were falling, so the rules count pay as Good (it was beating inflation) and inflation as Bad (for being too low). We have left the rules as they are rather than change them after the fact.

COVID-19. Jobs and growth were Bad, yet the verdict stayed Mixed from April 2020. Record-low mortgage rates count as Good, and average pay jumped because lower-paid jobs disappeared first, not because people got raises. March 2020 still shows Strong because most of that month's figures were collected before the shutdowns. Most people would call 2020 a hard year; we have left the rules as they are rather than change them after the fact.

Measure	What we test	Rules, checked in order	Source
Inflation	The latest figure (prices, year over year)	Good if from 1.5% to under 3.0% Mixed if from 0.5% to under 1.5% Mixed if from 3.0% to under 4.0% Bad if anything the rules above don’t cover	BLS, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), all items, annual % change, via FRED
Jobs	How far the latest figure sits above or below its 20-year average	Good if under -0.50 pts Mixed if from -0.50 pts to under +0.75 pts Bad if anything the rules above don’t cover	BLS, Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted (Current Population Survey), via FRED
Pay after prices	The latest figure (pay growth minus inflation)	Good if 1.0% or more Mixed if from 0.0% to under 1.0% Bad if anything the rules above don’t cover	BLS, Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees (total private), annual % change, minus CPI-U inflation, via FRED
Rents	The latest figure (rents, year over year)	Good if under 3.0% Mixed if from 3.0% to under 5.0% Bad if anything the rules above don’t cover	BLS, CPI-U rent of primary residence, annual % change, via FRED
Interest rates	The latest figure (30-year mortgage rate)	Good if under 5.00% Mixed if from 5.00% to under 6.50% Bad if anything the rules above don’t cover	Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average (latest weekly figure each month), via FRED. Copyright Freddie Mac
Growth	The latest figure (GDP per person, year over year)	Good if 1.5% or more Mixed if from 0.0% to under 1.5% Bad if anything the rules above don’t cover	BEA, Real gross domestic product per capita, annual % change, via FRED