How's the Economy?

Latest data to Oct 2026

How's the US economy?

Mixed.

Some things are going well and others aren't. How it feels depends on whether you rent, own, borrow or save.

See what's behind itHow it's changedHow we decide

The 6 things behind the verdict

How's inflation?

Mixed
3.7%
Prices, year over year

Prices are rising 3.7% a year, a little away from what the Federal Reserve aims for.

BLS · Sep 2026

How are jobs?

Good
4.2%
Unemployment rate

Unemployment is 4.2%, below its 20-year average of 5.8%. Work is easier than usual to find.

BLS · Sep 2026

Is pay keeping up?

Bad
-0.4%
Pay growth minus inflation

Prices are rising faster than pay (-0.4% a year), so most workers are falling behind.

BLS · Sep 2026

How are rents?

Good
2.8%
Rents, year over year

Rents are rising 2.8% a year, a gentle pace.

BLS · Sep 2026

How are interest rates?

Bad
7.40%
30-year mortgage rate

The average 30-year mortgage rate is 7.40%, high enough to put a home loan out of reach for many buyers.

Freddie Mac · Oct 2026

Is the economy growing?

Good
1.9%
GDP per person, year over year

Output per person grew 1.9% over the year. The economy is growing faster than the population.

BEA · Q2 2026

The verdict over time

The verdict has been Mixed since Jul 2026. Since Dec 1967, it has been Strong 25% of the time, Mixed 50% and Weak 25%.

StrongMixedWeak1970 recession1973–75 recession1980 recession1981–82 recession1990–91 recession2001 recessionGFCCOVID-19197019801990200020102020
StrongMixedWeak1970 recession1973–75 recession1980 recession1981–82 recession1990–91 recession2001 recessionGFCCOVID-19198020002020
  • GFC, Jan 2008 to Jun 2009. The verdict was Weak at the worst of the crisis but back to Mixed from March 2009, while unemployment was still climbing toward its 10% peak that October. Prices were falling, so the rules count pay as Good (it was beating inflation) and inflation as Bad (for being too low). We have left the rules as they are rather than change them after the fact.
  • COVID-19, Mar 2020 to Dec 2020. Jobs and growth were Bad, yet the verdict stayed Mixed from April 2020. Record-low mortgage rates count as Good, and average pay jumped because lower-paid jobs disappeared first, not because people got raises. March 2020 still shows Strong because most of that month's figures were collected before the shutdowns. Most people would call 2020 a hard year; we have left the rules as they are rather than change them after the fact.
Show what drove it: the 6 measures
  • Good
  • Mixed
  • Bad
  • No data yet
Inflation
Jobs
Pay after prices
Rents
Interest rates
Growth
See the verdict year by year
YearOverallInflationJobsPay after pricesRentsInterest ratesGrowth
Oct 2026MixedMixedGoodBadGoodBadGood
2025StrongGoodGoodGoodGoodMixedGood
2024StrongGoodGoodGoodMixedBadGood
2023MixedMixedGoodGoodBadBadGood
2022WeakBadGoodBadBadMixedMixed
2021MixedBadGoodBadMixedGoodGood
2020MixedMixedMixedGoodGoodGoodBad
2019StrongGoodGoodMixedMixedGoodGood
2018StrongGoodGoodGoodMixedGoodGood
2017StrongGoodGoodMixedMixedGoodGood
2016StrongGoodGoodMixedMixedGoodMixed
2015StrongMixedGoodGoodMixedGoodMixed
2014StrongMixedMixedGoodMixedGoodGood
2013StrongGoodMixedMixedGoodGoodGood
2012MixedGoodBadBadGoodGoodMixed
2011MixedMixedBadBadGoodGoodMixed
2010MixedMixedBadMixedGoodGoodGood
2009MixedGoodBadBadGoodMixedBad
2008WeakBadBadGoodMixedMixedBad
2007WeakBadMixedBadMixedMixedMixed
2006StrongGoodGoodGoodMixedMixedGood
2005MixedMixedGoodBadMixedMixedGood
2004MixedMixedMixedBadGoodMixedGood
2003MixedGoodMixedBadGoodMixedGood
2002MixedGoodMixedMixedMixedMixedMixed
2001MixedGoodGoodGoodMixedBadBad
2000MixedMixedGoodMixedMixedBadGood
1999StrongGoodGoodGoodMixedBadGood
1998StrongGoodGoodGoodMixedBadGood
1997StrongGoodGoodGoodMixedBadGood
1996MixedMixedGoodMixedGoodBadGood
1995MixedGoodGoodMixedGoodBadMixed
1994StrongGoodGoodMixedGoodBadGood
1993MixedGoodGoodBadGoodBadMixed
1992MixedMixedMixedBadGoodBadGood
1991WeakMixedMixedBadGoodBadBad
1990WeakBadMixedBadMixedBadBad
1989MixedBadGoodBadMixedBadGood
1988MixedBadGoodBadMixedBadGood
1987MixedBadGoodBadMixedBadGood
1986MixedMixedMixedMixedBadBadGood
1985WeakMixedMixedBadBadBadGood
1984WeakBadBadBadBadBadGood
1983MixedMixedBadMixedMixedBadGood
1982WeakMixedBadGoodBadBadBad
1981WeakBadBadBad–BadMixed
1980WeakBadBadBad–BadBad
1979WeakBadMixedBad–BadMixed
1978WeakBadMixedBad–BadGood
1977WeakBadBadMixed–BadGood
1976MixedBadBadGood–BadGood
1975WeakBadBadBad–BadGood
1974WeakBadBadBad–BadBad
1973WeakBadMixedBad–BadGood
1972MixedMixedMixedGood–BadGood
1971MixedMixedBadGood–BadGood
1970WeakBadBadMixed––Bad
1969MixedBadGoodMixed––Mixed
1968StrongBadGoodGood––Good
1967StrongMixedGoodGood––Good

Download the verdict for every month (CSV)

The longer stretches

Every run of Strong or Weak lasting 6 months or more, most recent first. The rest of the time the verdict was Mixed or changing month to month.

  • StrongFeb 2025 to Aug 2025 · 7 months
  • WeakSep 2022 to Feb 2023 · 6 months
  • StrongApr 2017 to Mar 2020 · 36 months
  • StrongJun 2015 to Dec 2016 · 19 months
  • StrongJun 2014 to Dec 2014 · 7 months
  • StrongSep 2013 to Mar 2014 · 7 months
  • StrongJun 2010 to Nov 2010 · 6 months
  • WeakMay 2008 to Oct 2008 · 6 months · GFC
  • StrongNov 2006 to May 2007 · 7 months
  • StrongOct 1998 to Dec 1999 · 15 months
  • StrongMar 1997 to Jan 1998 · 11 months
  • WeakJun 1990 to Sep 1991 · 16 months · 1990–91 recession
  • WeakJan 1984 to Feb 1986 · 26 months
  • WeakSep 1978 to May 1983 · 57 months · 1980 recession, 1981–82 recession
  • WeakAug 1973 to Jun 1976 · 35 months · 1973–75 recession
  • WeakFeb 1970 to Feb 1971 · 13 months · 1970 recession
  • StrongDec 1967 to Mar 1969 · 16 months

Every month is judged by today's rules, using today's figures. Those include later revisions, so this shows how each month looks now, not what was known at the time. Some measures start later: rents from Jan 1982 and interest rates from Apr 1971. Until then the verdict uses the measures that exist. More on the method