United States · data to Sep 2026
Is pay keeping up?
Bad.
Prices are rising faster than pay (-0.4% a year), so most workers are falling behind.
For context: -0.4% is lower than 67% of all 740 figures since 1965.
Pay growth minus inflation
Above zero means pay is rising faster than prices
The strip under the chart shows the verdict each period would get by today's rules:Good Mixed Bad
See the latest numbers
| Period | Value | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | -0.4% | Bad |
| Aug 2026 | -0.1% | Bad |
| Jul 2026 | 0.0% | Mixed |
| Jun 2026 | 0.0% | Mixed |
| May 2026 | -0.6% | Bad |
| Apr 2026 | -0.1% | Bad |
| Mar 2026 | 0.3% | Mixed |
| Feb 2026 | 1.3% | Good |
| Jan 2026 | 1.3% | Good |
| Dec 2025 | 1.2% | Good |
| Nov 2025 | 1.3% | Good |
| Sep 2025 | 0.8% | Mixed |
Source: BLS, Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees (total private), annual % change, minus CPI-U inflation, via FRED · Series AHETPI minus CPIAUCSL · Latest Sep 2026
How we judged this
What we test: The latest figure (pay growth minus inflation). Right now that's -0.4%.
- Good if 1.0% or more
- Mixed if from 0.0% to under 1.0%
- Bad if anything the rules above don’t coverapplies now
Rules are checked from the top. The first one that fits decides the verdict.
About this data
- Measure
- Pay growth minus inflation
- Latest
- -0.4% (Sep 2026)
- Published
- Monthly, by BLS
- Verdict counts for
- Equal weight with the others in the overall verdict
Average hourly pay for production and nonsupervisory workers, about four in five private-sector employees, compared with consumer price inflation.
An average can rise for the wrong reasons. In 2020 lower-paid jobs disappeared first, which pushed the average up even though few people got a raise. When prices fall, as in 2009, pay can also look strong without anyone being better off.