How's the Economy?

Latest data to Nov 2026

How's the UK economy?

Mixed.

Some things are going well and others aren't. How it feels depends on whether you rent, own, borrow or save.

See what's behind itHow it's changedHow we decide

Other countries

The 6 things behind the verdict

How's inflation?

OK
3.5%
Prices, year on year

Prices are rising 3.5% a year, a little more than a point away from the Bank of England's 2% target.

ONS · Sep 2026

How are jobs?

Good
4.7%
Unemployment rate

Unemployment is 4.7%, below its 20-year average of 5.5%. Work is easier than usual to find.

ONS · Jul 2026 · may be out of date

Is pay keeping up?

OK
0.6%
Real pay growth

Pay is only just keeping ahead of prices, by 0.6% a year after inflation.

ONS · Aug 2026

How are rents?

OK
3.8%
Private rents, year on year

Private rents are rising 3.8% a year, faster than usual.

ONS · Sep 2026

How are interest rates?

OK
3.75%
Bank Rate

Bank Rate is 3.75%. Borrowers are paying more than a few years ago, and savers are earning more.

Bank of England · Nov 2026

Is the economy growing?

OK
1.0%
GDP per head, year on year

Output per head grew 1.0% over the year. Growing, but only just once you count each person.

ONS · Q2 2026

The verdict over time

The verdict has been Mixed since Oct 2025. Since Jan 1991, it has been Strong 48% of the time, Mixed 42% and Weak 10%.

StrongMixedWeak1990–91 recessionGFCCOVID-19Rate rises1995200020052010201520202025
StrongMixedWeak1990–91 recessionGFCCOVID-19Rate rises200020102020
  • GFC, Apr 2008 to Jun 2009. The verdict was Weak only briefly, in late 2008, and Mixed through 2009 even though unemployment, pay and output were all Bad. Bank Rate at a record low of 0.5% counts as Good for borrowers, and inflation and rents were steady. We've left the rules as they are rather than change them after the fact.
  • COVID-19, Mar 2020 to Dec 2020. The verdict was Mixed from April 2020 to the end of the year, even though output fell by more than at any time in decades. The furlough scheme kept unemployment low, so jobs counted as Good until July 2020; Bank Rate was cut to 0.1%, and rents were steady. We've left the rules as they are rather than change them after the fact.
Show what drove it: the 6 measures
  • Good
  • OK
  • Bad
  • No data yet
Inflation
Jobs
Pay after prices
Rents
Interest rates
Growth
See the verdict year by year
YearOverallInflationJobsPay after pricesRentsInterest ratesGrowth
Nov 2026MixedOKGoodOKOKOKOK
2025MixedOKOKOKOKOKOK
2024MixedGoodGoodGoodBadBadOK
2023WeakBadGoodGoodBadBadBad
2022MixedBadGoodBadOKOKOK
2021MixedBadGoodBadGoodGoodGood
2020MixedOKBadGoodGoodGoodBad
2019StrongGoodGoodGoodGoodGoodOK
2018StrongGoodGoodGoodGoodGoodOK
2017StrongOKGoodBadGoodGoodGood
2016StrongGoodGoodGoodGoodGoodGood
2015StrongBadGoodGoodGoodGoodOK
2014StrongOKGoodOKGoodGoodGood
2013StrongGoodOKBadGoodGoodGood
2012MixedGoodBadBadGoodGoodOK
2011WeakBadBadBadGoodGoodBad
2010MixedOKBadBadGoodGoodGood
2009MixedGoodBadBadGoodGoodBad
2008MixedOKBadBadGoodGoodBad
2007StrongGoodGoodGoodGoodBadGood
2006MixedOKGoodGoodGoodBadOK
2005StrongGoodGoodGoodGoodBadGood
2004StrongGoodGoodGoodGoodBadOK
2003StrongGoodGoodGoodGoodOKGood
2002StrongGoodGoodGoodGoodBadGood
2001StrongGoodGoodGoodGoodBadGood
2000MixedOKGood–GoodBadGood
1999StrongGoodGood–GoodBadGood
1998MixedGoodGood–OKBadGood
1997StrongGoodGood–GoodBadGood
1996StrongGoodGood––BadGood
1995MixedOKOK––BadGood
1994MixedGoodOK––BadGood
1993MixedGoodBad––BadGood
1992MixedGoodBad––BadOK
1991WeakBadBad––BadBad

Download the verdict for every month (CSV)

The longer stretches

Every run of Strong or Weak lasting 6 months or more, most recent first. The rest of the time the verdict was Mixed or changing month to month.

  • WeakFeb 2023 to Oct 2023 · 9 months · Rate rises
  • StrongMar 2021 to Nov 2021 · 9 months
  • StrongDec 2013 to Mar 2020 · 76 months
  • WeakJun 2011 to Dec 2011 · 7 months
  • StrongApr 2007 to May 2008 · 14 months
  • StrongJul 2002 to Aug 2006 · 50 months
  • StrongMar 2001 to Apr 2002 · 14 months
  • StrongJan 1999 to Dec 1999 · 12 months
  • StrongJun 1997 to Sep 1998 · 16 months
  • StrongFeb 1996 to Dec 1996 · 11 months
  • WeakJan 1991 to Sep 1992 · 21 months · 1990–91 recession

Every month is judged by today's rules, using today's figures. Those include later revisions, so this shows how each month looks now, not what was known at the time. Some measures start later: pay after prices from Mar 2001 and rents from Jan 1997. Until then the verdict uses the measures that exist. More on the method